In these modern times, we have all the means and technology to make our life easier. This goes to Kentucky Derby betting too. We have lots of Sportsbook and experts online sharing race odds, we have unlimited videos of prep race to study and see the past performances of horses/ So why, in the midst of this glorious new Information Age, is picking a Derby winner harder than ever? I think the answer is that the race itself, and the way that horses are prepared for it, has changed as radically as the tools available to bettors and fans alike.
Full fields of up to 20 horses in recent years has made a big difference. There is no longer such a thing as a Derby favorite who scares anyone off, and simply getting a horse to the Derby starting gate has become a badge of success for owners and trainers. Only nine lined up against Spectacular Bid in 1979 because few trainers wanted to run against a clearly superior horse. Today, Pegasus himself could be 1-10 and he would still have 19 opponents (and four on the also-eligible list). Larger fields mean more traffic, more chaos, and a larger pool of plausible contenders, especially for the minor awards that fill out trifectas and superfectas.
Another reason is that Derby entrants today have made so many fewer starts than they used to by this point in their careers. Even without the in-depth coverage available today, we knew more about Derby horses’ capabilities because they had been tested more often, and had established a clearer pecking order among themselves through repeated meetings. There were fewer roads to the Derby, and fewer gaudy prep races that now make every winning owner think his horse belongs in the Kentucky Derby because he won a minor race with “Derby” in its name.
There was a greater chance that horses had run close to their full capabilities by the time they got to the Derby just by making 10 or 12 starts. Now, we have to make a lot of guesses about horses who have run five or six times and are more eligible than their predecessors to make a sudden and sharp leap forward on Derby Day. This has become a staple of modern Derby handicapping, and it’s a highly speculative one: judging a horse’s chances less on what he has actually accomplished so far on the racetrack and more on whether he is poised to deliver a performance unlike any other he has turned in during his brief career.
All these changes have combined to make it harder to select a Derby winner. But there’s one thing I know. No matter what era or year you are, to win your Kentucky Derby betting, research is very important. Research with a touch of luck is your key to win. And no matter how hard it is to choose a Kentucky Derby winner, harder work and research will definitely top it off.
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